[Member Only Analysis] Columbus Crew v Houston

Columbus were denied by a last minute equaliser at New York last weekend and will look to improve on a record of one win in five home games this season. They’ve won 54% of their home matches since 2011 including half their last 16 hosting top-half teams.

Houston had been unbeaten at home for almost two years before a couple of recent defeats. However, they tend to struggle on the road and travel without several first team players here due to injuries and international duty. They’ve won just seven of their 37 away games since 2011 including one win and eight defeats from 15 trips to middle-third sides. Columbus are unbeaten in eight meetings with Houston since 2009 and are worth supporting at evens on the Asian handicap -0.25..…………[Click here to read more Form Lab member only analysis]

Player Analysis: Malaga

Manuel Pellegrini has confirmed this weekend will be his final game in charge of Malaga before moving to Manchester City. With some players likely to follow him out the door we take a look below at who has been key to their performances.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Jeremy Toulalan, Midfielder – Toulalan has been strongly linked with a summer move and his impact has been felt most on the road where Malaga have won just two of 16 games he’s missed since the start of last season as they’ve conceded 71% more goals per game than with him.

Jesus Gamez, Defender – Gamez has spent his entire career at Malaga and since the start of last season the right back has played 65% of their games. Without him they’ve conceded 57% more goals per game and their win ate has fallen from 49% to just 35%.

Isco, Forward – Isco has enjoyed a breakout season and looks certain to move to a bigger club this summer. He’s missed just eight of Malaga’s last 69 games after forcing his way into the team last season and without him they’ve W1-D2-L5 having scored 22% fewer goals and conceded 79% more than when he’s been playing.

Malaga travel to Barcelona this weekend but with an almost fully fit squad they can push the champions close and might be worth backing on the Asian handicap +2.0 at 1.76.

To see which other players are key, and which are not, use the Player analysis in Form Lab Black. Tools within the Player analysis allow you to examine what a team’s most effective partnerships are in key positions and the impact of players on a variety of different markets. Get a 28 day free trial of Form Lab Black 28 today or email support@footballformlabs.com for details of how to upgrade. 

[Member Only Analysis] Lyon v Rennes

Lyon enter the final game of the season knowing they need to win to ensure Champions League football next season. Rennes, meanwhile, must wish the season had ended months ago after slumping from fifth in mid-February to 11^th now having won just one of their last 13 games – and that against last-placed Brest.

Lyon are limping over the line themselves and have won just two of their last eight home games but four of those failures were against the other teams in the top five and they’ve won 13 of 16 home games against middle-third teams since the start of last season. Nine of those wins have been by more than one goal and Rennes have lost four of their last six away matches by at least two goals despite some limited opposition. Moreover, they’ve lost eight of their last 11 trips to top-half teams with six defeats by two or more goals and seven without scoring. Lyon are 2.15 to beat the -1.5 Asian handicap with Pinnacle.…………[Click here to read more Form Lab member only analysis]

Player Analysis: Bordeaux

Bordeaux have been very poor since February as they’ve paid the penalty for selling their best attacker Yoan Gouffran to Newcastle in the January window. However, they have one final league game and also a Cup final to look forward to before the season finishes. Below we look at their key players.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Marc Planus, Defender – Planus is Bordeaux’s longest serving player and since the start of last season he’s played 47 of 75 games. With him they’ve won 45% of games while without this drops to just 25% as they’ve conceded 22% more goals per game.

Ludovic Obraniak, Midfielder – Obraniak is a Polish international and since joining in January last year has played 44 of 56 Bordeaux games. While they’ve lost just one of the 12 matches he’s missed they’ve also won just three and have failed to score in half those games as their average goals per game has fallen from 1.41 with him to just 0.75 without.

Benoit Tremoulinas, Defender – Tremoulinas is an attacking left back and has missed just 13 games since the start of last season. Without him they’ve won only once and have scored just five goals.

Planus, Obraniak and Tremoulinas have played together in 27 of the 56 games since Obraniak joined the club last season with a win rate of 48%. This drops to just 34% when one or more has been missing and significantly their average goals scored has fallen from 1.56 to just 1.0 goals per game. This in turn has led to 16 of the 29 matches without all three having fewer than two goals.

Some players may well be rested for this weekend’s game against Evian in advance of the cup final against the same opposition and it could be worth laying Bordeaux at evens or backing -2.5 goals at 1.95.

To see which other players are key, and which are not, use the Player analysis in Form Lab Black. Tools within the Player analysis allow you to examine what a team’s most effective partnerships are in key positions and the impact of players on a variety of different markets. Get a 28 day free trial of Form Lab Black 28 today or email support@footballformlabs.com for details of how to upgrade. 

West Brom v Man Utd Analysis

Sir Alex Ferguson’s final game in charge of Man Utd sees his side travel to West Brom. The Baggies have lost their last four games against Man Utd and the champions should be motivated to send Sir Alex off in style.

United have won nine of their 12 trips to middle-third teams since the start of last season and eight of those wins have come after leading at the break. With 20 of United’s last 24 wins having been win-win doubles the longer shot could be worth a punt over the straight win. Furthermore, while West Brom will finish in the top half this season they’ve picked up just 15 points in 17 games since the start of January and in the previous two seasons they picked up just two points in their eight home games against top-four finishers and this term they’ve lost three of four home games against the current top five. Man Utd look a great price at 1.83 and splitting stakes with the win/win double result at 3.0 looks worth doing.

Six of United’s last seven away games have had fewer than three goals as they’ve benefitted from some excellent defensive performances. However, West Brom have scored in eight of their last nine home games and have found the net when hosting the other teams in the top four this season. The assumption is that there is an increase in goals at the end of the season but that hasn’t been true for United in recent seasons and seven of their eight away games in May since 2007/08 have had fewer than three goals and so ‘overs’ looks short enough and worth leaving alone.

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Leverkusen v Hannover Analysis

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Liverpool v Everton Analysis

Both teams come into the derby in decent form and Liverpool were unaffected by Luis Suarez’ absence last weekend as they put six past Newcastle. Liverpool have a good record without Suarez since the start of last season as they’ve six of their 11 games he’s missed. However, they’ve failed to score in four of those and have possibly tightened up defensively to compensate as they’ve kept five clean sheets.

The Reds have also kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 home games, and six in the last 10 Merseyside derbies. Meanwhile, Everton are struggling a bit for goals on the road having failed to net in four of their last six away games. The Toffees have lost half their 16 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season with six defeats to nil but more recently they’ve drawn five of their last six such matches and Liverpool have drawn half their last 18 home games against top-half teams. However, Liverpool have won 7/11 derbies since 2007/08 with just one defeat and six wins to nil. If they are to win Liverpool look most likely to do it to nil and are a juicy 4.0 to do so.

Seven of those 11 derbies finished with fewer than three goals, as has been the case in six of Everton’s last seven matches. The Toffees have kept five clean sheets in that run, and eight of their last 13 trips to top-half teams have also had fewer than three goals. With both defences performing well the 2.05 available on under 2.5 goals looks an excellent price.

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Man City v West Ham Analysis

Man City have lost their title but they’ve been in their best form of the season recently and they’ve won six of their last seven home games while keeping six clean sheets. They were undone by a seven minute Spurs assault last weekend but they’ve won their last nine home games following a defeat with six win-win doubles and eight wins to-nil. Furthermore, those results largely came against good opposition with eight of the teams either finishing in the top half or due to this season and they’ve also recorded 13 win-wins in their last 17 home games against middle-third teams.

West Ham have suffered loss-loss doubles in half their last 14 away matches and have the worst away scoring record in the league this season with just 10 goals. Excluding their trips to the current bottom six, the Hammers away record reads W0-D4-L7 with just four goals scored. With West Ham safe Man City should win this comfortably and 2.2 for the win to nil looks a juicy price.

Sergio Aguero was left on the bench last week but looks set to start here and since the start of last season he’s scored in 14 of his 26 home starts including in seven of his nine against middle-third teams – scoring first on five occasions and netting 11 goals in total. Given these scoring stats, and goals against Man Utd and Chelsea already this month, Aguero to score at anytime looks worth backing at 1.91.

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Liverpool v Chelsea Preview

Rafa Benitez and Fernando Torres make their return to Anfield looking to improve Chelsea’s poor recent record against Liverpool of four defeats in their last five meetings. Liverpool’s good form has faltered a little following back-to-back goalless draws and while they’ve won eight of their last 12 home matches only one of those came against a team in the top eight. Moreover, they’ve won only two of their eight home games against top-six teams since the start of last season while drawing half those matches.

Chelsea have lost three of their last four away matches but have won four of their last five matches home and away so aren’t in bad form. They’ve lost just six of 17 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season, and have already won at Everton, Spurs and Arsenal this term, so the home team look too short for the win. Chelsea can be backed +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.85.

Liverpool have had at least three goals in six of their last eight home matches as have Chelsea in eight of their last 10 trips to top-half teams. However, games between these two have a history of being cagey with nine of their 11 meetings since 2007/08 having fewer than three strikes and after Liverpool’s two recent goalless games the goals markets look best avoided.

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